Can Medicare Balance Fee-For-Service With Value-Based Care by 2030?

February 13, 2025

Health care policy experts are closely examining whether Medicare can successfully transition from a fee-for-service model to a value-based care approach by the year 2030 without compromising patient care or financial sustainability. This transition poses significant challenges, particularly for multispecialty outpatient practices which, unlike hospitals, do not operate with common benchmarks for staffing ratios or emergency room metrics.

Complexity of Value-Based Care Transition

The complexities of shifting to value-based care are evident in programs like the Merit-Based Incentive Payment System (MIPS), which includes a myriad of quality measures. Standardizing reforms across various medical practices thus becomes difficult. While hospitals have more uniform operational benchmarks, outpatient practices face unique challenges in adapting to these changes.

Another central issue is the anticipated persistence of the fee-for-service model, even as value-based care becomes a focal point. According to the Medical Group Management Association (MGMA), integrating technological advances and data utilization for population health management is vital for fostering improvements. Yet, systemic issues, particularly how Medicare programs are scored by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), create significant barriers to incentivizing preventive care at a legislative level.

Challenges in Preventive Care Incentivization

The scoring methods used by the CBO fail to prioritize preventive care, limiting the potential for proactive healthcare measures that address conditions at earlier, more treatable stages. Gilberg from MGMA has stressed the need to tackle these systemic issues to pivot towards preventive care rather than reactive care.

One of the key differences in Medicare is the lifelong enrollment of patients compared to private insurance. This unique aspect of Medicare is often overlooked in policy discussions, as the focus tends to be on the fiscal implications of increased enrollment rather than the broader benefits to individuals’ quality of life and their economic contributions.

The Growth of Medicare Advantage

A significant trend contributing to the complexity of this transition is the rapid expansion of Medicare Advantage, the managed care alternative to traditional Medicare. By 2023, more than half of Medicare beneficiaries were enrolled in Medicare Advantage plans, and projections indicate this number may reach 75% by 2030. These privately-administered plans come with their own contracts and individualized value-based care initiatives, adding layers of complexity to the already intricate alignment of value-based strategies across varying insurers.

The growth of Medicare Advantage presents a multifaceted landscape with diverse goals and incentives. This divergence complicates the standardization of value-based care considerably. Gilberg emphasized the importance of maintaining clinical relevance during this period of evolution, which will undoubtedly make the transition over the next decade challenging but crucial.

Conclusion

Health care policy experts are meticulously analyzing the feasibility of Medicare transitioning from a fee-for-service model to a value-based care approach by 2030. This shift aims to enhance patient outcomes and ensure financial sustainability. However, realizing this objective entails substantial challenges, particularly for multispecialty outpatient practices. These practices differ from hospitals in that they lack standardized benchmarks for staffing ratios or emergency room metrics, making it harder to measure and improve performance uniformly. Unlike hospitals, where emergency room metrics and specific staffing ratios provide clear performance standards, outpatient practices face difficulties in establishing and adhering to such benchmarks due to their complex and varied nature. Experts are debating whether multispecialty outpatient practices can effectively adapt to the value-based care framework without compromising the quality of patient care or financial stability, raising concerns about the potential obstacles and necessary measures to facilitate this significant transformation.

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