One of the major concerns for public health in the United Kingdom, and certainly around the world, is the impact of climate change on healthcare. In the United Kingdom, various aspects of climate change threaten the population’s well-being, including direct effects like rising temperatures and increased flooding and indirect consequences such as food and water insecurity and poor air quality.
Another aspect that needs to be considered is the unequal distribution of climate change’s effects. Vulnerable populations, including the elderly and underprivileged communities, are at higher risk of its many impacts.
The UK government anticipates several threats to public health as climate change advances.
How Climate Change Impacts Public Health
For leaders in the UK, the impacts of climate change on public health are already a major concern. While many are still debating the legitimacy of the climate crisis, the government is looking for solutions to build resiliency against the healthcare impacts.
The UK Health Security Agency released the Health Effects of Climate Change (HECC) report, which explores the intersections between climate change and health and provides research into the health risks posed by climate change at scale.
The report details 9 key ways that public health is threatened by climate change, which include:
1. Extreme heat and cold
As climate change starts to impact the UK, the country will experience frequent patterns of extreme heat and cold due to changing temperatures. Experts have explained that a significant amount of data suggests that by the 2070s the United Kingdom could be facing a “high-warming scenario” which would account for over 21,000 heat-related deaths per annum. In what seems contradictory, the number of deaths due to the cold is also expected to increase, particularly among the elderly.
2. Increased flooding
The change in weather patterns has increased rainfall, making more areas vulnerable to flooding. “Climate change is warming the atmosphere,” warns Dr Linda Speight, a hydrometeorologist at Oxford. “A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture so that when it rains, the rainfall is heavier and more likely to lead to flooding. In particular, we know that climate change is leading to warmer and wetter winters in the UK. We will, unfortunately, experience more winters like this one in the future.”
3. Poor outdoor air quality
The Met Office has declared poor air quality as one of the leading environmental risks to public health. Air pollution can alter weather patterns and, in turn, cause heat waves. Experts have linked air pollution to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, and in the UK alone, close to 30,000 deaths per year are air quality-related. Climate change will only exacerbate this issue over time.
4. Allergies
For those with allergies, seasonal sickness is only going to get worse. The UKHSA predicts that there will be longer and more intense pollen seasons for birch and oak plants, and the extended fungal spore season will likely worsen allergies for sensitive individuals.
5. Vector-borne diseases (VBD)
In a POSTbrief report, the Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology outlined their concern that long-term change to the UK’s climate will create favorable conditions for vectors (carrier organisms that transmit disease). Mosquitoes and ticks are most likely to thrive, creating increased risk for diseases like malaria, Lyme disease, and dengue fever, among others.
6. Infectious diseases
The HECC 2023 report details several infectious diseases that will be directly impacted by changes in the UK’s climate. This looks at how various bacteria, parasites, and other pathogens will find the new conditions favorable. This includes water-borne, food-borne, and air-borne pathogens, which will find new ways to thrive under warmer conditions, threatening the health and well-being of citizens.
7. Wildfires
Wildfires are a growing risk in the UK, according to the National Emergencies Trust. As the world gets marginally warmer, parts of the UK will experience dryer conditions leading to dried-out vegetation, which can be a fire starter. The Met Office, together with the UK Center for Ecology and Hydrology, predict that by 2100, wildfires will increase by up to 50%.
8. Drought and food security
Long-term climate change will have an impact on precipitation patterns across the UK. While some areas risk flooding, other parts of the country will increasingly face drought conditions. Both of these extremes threaten food security. Within the UK, farmers have experienced the effects of flooding on their crops, and the ability to import food is becoming more difficult as main trade partners are in a similar situation.
9. Poor housing
Improving energy efficiency in homes is an important aspect of climate change mitigation and promotes healthy indoor environments. Experts advise that careful attention should be paid to intersecting issues like poor air quality, overheating, noise, and ventilation.
A closer look at some climate-related health risks
Numerous governmental agencies and NGOs are dedicated to researching the potential long-term impact of climate change on the United Kingdom. The evidence is strongest for adverse impacts on health due to heat and cold, flooding, and vector-borne disease risks increasing under a warming climate.
Heat and cold-related deaths are both projected to increase in the UK, although the cold will have significant impacts until the late century, largely due to an aging population.
The heightened risk of flooding will mean that people, properties, and infrastructure that were not previously at risk will become increasingly vulnerable. The UK will become more suitable for the survival of disease-carrying vectors, with the greatest concern being the proliferation of Aedes albopictus; mosquitoes capable of transmitting dengue fever.
Climate change has already heavily impacted the cost of food. With a large reliance on the import of fruits and vegetables from countries similarly affected by climate change, these costs are expected to continue climbing.
The uneven distribution of healthcare risks in the UK
As the government explores solutions, it will need to be mindful of the fact that the effects of climate change will not be evenly distributed. Experts have warned that inequalities will be exacerbated along geographical and sociodemographic lines.
Geographically, the southern regions are likely to experience the brunt of the emergence of VBDs, droughts, and wildfires. Rising sea levels and flooding will threaten coastal towns and low-lying areas.
Urban areas may be particularly impacted by extreme heat due to the urban heat island effect.
In the case of allergen-related illness, impacts will be highly concentrated across the country, with increasing risk emerging first in the Midlands. Emerging evidence suggests that older adults (over 65 years) and those with pre-existing health conditions will be more susceptible to the effects of rising temperatures than most.
Vulnerable groups — children, people with disabilities, people experiencing homelessness, and people in certain settings such as prisons, schools, and social care — are most vulnerable. These are the population groups that the government will need to prioritize in its climate response.
Healthcare risks across different generations
The health risks of climate change will not be distributed equally across generations. The long-term trajectory of climate change means that there are intergenerational considerations. For an optimistic low-warming scenario, temperatures are likely to peak mid-century: current working-age adults will be in their vulnerable retirement years, and those who will be adults in the 2050s to 2080s will face the greatest burden of adaptation.
A less optimistic scenario in line with the current trajectory of warming and global mitigation policies is consistent with temperatures that will either not decline after reaching a mid-century peak or will continue to rise. In this case, current children and young people will experience increasingly severe warming and impacts into their retirement age, with impacts persisting or increasing also for their children.
Thus, the health threats from climate change are high for current working-age adults, particularly acute for current children and young people, and unknown but potentially severe for their children and grandchildren.
Concluding Thoughts
There are several foreseeable threats that climate change poses to the United Kingdom’s public health, and of greater concern is the uneven distribution of these risks. Vulnerable population groups are most likely to be impacted by climate-related healthcare threats. The UK government will be focusing its attention on building resiliency to mitigate the worst of the climate change impacts and understanding the shifting requirements of public health.
With population groups affected differently, only a tailored, considered response will be sufficient to address the UK’s needs.
