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Move over, algorithms: Primary care doctors just as effective at predicting patient hospitalization

April 17, 2017

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It probably comes as no surprise that primary care physicians, who know their patients best, can accurately predict the likelihood those patients will end up in the hospital within the next year.

Primary care physicians (PCPs) were as accurate as commonly used predictive algorithms in identifying patients at high risk for hospitalization, according to a study published in the American Journal of Managed Care.

Identifying patients at increased risk for hospitalization is key to designing interventions to prevent avoidable admissions. Primary care doctors, who know the clinical and psychosocial needs of patients, can help identify factors missed by predictive algorithms, the study found.

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